Estimates reflect the amount of additional federal Medicaid funding that each state might potentially receive over nine calendar quarters (October 1, 2008 through December 31, 2010) under Section 5001 of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) through an increase in their Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP). The estimated amount of additional federal Medicaid funding that each state could receive in the first two quarters starting February 25, 2009 for the first two calendar quarters (October 1, 2008 through March 31, 2009) is available on statehealthfacts.org here.

These estimates were prepared by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) for the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance and are based on projections of state Medicaid spending from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (using CMS Form 37 data) and state unemployment rates the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and unemployment forecasts from IHS Global Insight.

States would receive assistance during the Recession Adjustment Period, from the first quarter of fiscal year 2009 through the end of the first quarter of fiscal year 2011 (October 1, 2008 through December 31, 2010).

The ARRA holds harmless all states from any declines in their FMAP that would have otherwise occurred based on changes in their per capita income relative to the national average; increases the federal share every state receives by 6.2 percentage points; and further reduces the state share in most states by 5.5%, 8.5%, or 11.5% depending on changes in each state's unemployment rate.

For more details, see Temporary Increase in State FMAP, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, February, 2009. Analyses based on draft legislation that included slightly different provisions than the final bill (and slightly different estimates) are available from the Government Accountability Office here and here.

For information about ARRA see "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA): Medicaid and Health Care Provisions" at http://www.kff.org/medicaid/7872.cfm.

The United States Government Accountability Office and Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (for Territory estimates), February 19, 2009.

1. U.S. total includes data for American Samoa ($3 million) and the Northern Mariana Islands ($2 million)